Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amari Cooper

Amari CooperReceiving Yards

Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-135) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to accrue 7.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Amari Cooper has accumulated far more air yards this year (100.0 per game) than he did last year (85.0 per game).
Amari Cooper’s 66.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 50.3.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 9th-least in football.
Amari Cooper’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.9% to 64.5%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.1%) to WRs this year (60.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards