WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Steelers vs. Browns
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-129) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to total 6.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has been a more integral piece of his offense’s pass attack this year (19.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.8%).
- Pat Freiermuth has totaled many more air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (27.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- Pat Freiermuth’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 68.9%.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (65.3%) vs. tight ends this year (65.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
