Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (+102) after it opened @ 75.5 (-114).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders will be forced to utilize backup QB Jarrett Stidham in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in the league.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
Davante Adams has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (101.0).
Davante Adams’s ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 75.8% to 59.9%.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards