Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-118/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 22.5 (-118) after it opened @ 20.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.16 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Logan Thomas to garner 5.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas has accrued a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among TEs.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (66.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Logan Thomas’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 62.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards