Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Rhamondre Stevenson to notch 14.5 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this season (57.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (34.9%).
- Rhamondre Stevenson has run for substantially more yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (47.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 36.6% run rate.
- The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-least yards in the NFL (just 108 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best unit in football this year with their run defense.
- The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
