Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Jets
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-130) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to total 10.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- DK Metcalf has posted quite a few more air yards this season (104.0 per game) than he did last season (96.0 per game).
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.2 plays per game.
- DK Metcalf’s skills in generating extra yardage have tailed off this year, notching a measly 2.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.97 figure last year.
- The New York Jets defense has yielded the least receiving yards per game in football (just 118.0) versus wide receivers this year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.6%) to wide receivers this year (62.6%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wideouts this year, yielding 6.98 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
