Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-115) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Evan Engram has accrued substantially more receiving yards per game (47.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (70%) vs. tight ends this year (70.0%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have incorporated motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
