Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Jelani WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Jelani Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-142) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup quarterback Nick Foles in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jelani Woods to garner 4.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile among tight ends.
- The New York Giants defense has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) versus tight ends this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Jelani Woods has been among the weakest TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
