Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to garner 8.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 28.55 seconds per snap.
Brandin Cooks has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks’s 54.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 71.8.
Brandin Cooks has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards