Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amon-Ra St. Brown from EV Insight

Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-115) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more important option in his team’s passing offense this season (31.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up significantly more air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (80.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).

Cons

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
101
Receiving Yards