Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for David Montgomery

David MontgomeryRushing Yards

Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (+100/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-125) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 13.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most yards in the league (145 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.

Cons

The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
David Montgomery has run for quite a few less yards per game (52.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards