Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Devin Singletary from EV Insight

Devin SingletaryRushing Yards

Right now, Devin Singletary’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-135) after it opened @ 47.5 (-120).

Pros

Devin Singletary has picked up 55.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (76th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 106 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Rushing Yards