WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the leading quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a terrific 270.0 yards per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 210.0 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
- The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards
253
Passing Yards
