Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.5% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 15.7 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- Alvin Kamara has earned 57.0% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
- Alvin Kamara has rushed for many fewer yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (67.0).
- Alvin Kamara’s rushing effectiveness (3.75 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (8th percentile among RBs).
- Alvin Kamara has been among the weakest RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.52 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 8th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
