Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 17 brings us the final Thursday Night Football game of the season, with the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans facing off in a game where both teams have playoff aspirations. The two teams are in very different spots in terms of health and motivation, as the Cowboys just beat the NFC top-seeded Eagles, while the Titans have lost five straight and could fall out of the playoffs altogether.
Below, I’m highlighting my favorite prop from this prime-time matchup. Find out my favorite bet on this game, and how I’m viewing this Titans offense. We are working with limited prop availability due to injury, but I think we found some good value.
Malik Willis Anytime Touchdown
(+375, BetMGM)
This is one of the toughest NFL games of the season for player props because there are some clear motivational roadblocks. The Cowboys are coming into this game as 12.5-point favorites, with a game total set at 40. While the Titans are fighting for a playoff spot, everything comes down to next week’s divisional battle against Jacksonville, making this game useless. The Cowboys are still fighting for important playoff seeding, but it’s very possible the Titans B-team doesn’t keep this remotely close. I expect the Cowboys to take care of business, and their biggest question mark comes with Tony Pollard, who is currently listed as questionable.
Ryan Tannehill being out means rookie Malik Willis will once again be the starter, and I hope you are not relying on any Titans pass catchers in fantasy football this week. Willis hasn’t surpassed 100 passing yards in any of his three starts, averages 4.5 yards per passing attempt and has a 50% completion rate, they lost to the Houston Texans last week. In addition to that, star running back Derrick Henry is currently doubtful for this game, and since this doesn’t really affect their playoff chances, I highly doubt he suits up. Willis hasn’t been able to pass with the threat of the best running back in the NFL, and it’s going to be even harder with rookie Hassan Haskins. They are also very hurt on the defensive side of the ball, with multiple starters set to miss this game.
Willis scored his first ever NFL touchdown last week, and I like his chances of repeating this week. I’m expecting the Cowboys to win this game and the Titans to be trailing. While I don’t think the Titans will have the most red-zone opportunities in the world, Willis’s dual-threat abilities should be on full display. It’s highly unlikely that Haskins and the backups will be anywhere near as efficient as Henry was, meaning more chances for Willis to keep it himself. Even with a negative gamescript, the Titans will still be one of the most run heavy teams in the NFL.
Willis currently averages more yards per carry than yards per attempt, and I really don’t see the passing attack coming alive against a top-five DVOA pass defense. We’ve seen mobile quarterbacks have some success, with Gardner Minshew scoring a touchdown last week and Justin Fields a couple weeks before that. I do think that as this game progresses, Dallas gets more comfortable with some prevent defenses and eventually allows the Titans to move the ball down the field, and a garbage time touchdown still pays the same. It’s a situation where there is just too much opportunity to pass up here, and the odds are already shifted down to +330 on FanDuel Sportsbook, +260 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
