Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.7% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to notch 7.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
D.J. Moore has put up many fewer receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.3%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards