MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-140) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 48.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects D’Onta Foreman to accumulate 15.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- D’Onta Foreman has garnered 44.9% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- D’Onta Foreman has grinded out 58.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (79th percentile).
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.4 plays per game.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
