Week 17 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tyler Allgeier from EV Insight

Tyler AllgeierRushing Yards

Right now, Tyler Allgeier’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-125/+100).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (+100) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).

Pros

The Falcons are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tyler Allgeier has grinded out 59.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (80th percentile).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.12 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards