Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Greg Dulcich from EV Insight

Greg DulcichReceiving Yards

Right now, Greg Dulcich’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-115) after it opened @ 34.5 (-110).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (68.5%) vs. TEs this year (68.5%).
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards