Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Broncos
Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-115) after it opened @ 59.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to earn 8.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- Jerry Jeudy has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 20.2% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the league (71.6%) to wideouts this year (71.6%).
Cons
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Jerry Jeudy’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 65.3%.
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
