Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jelani Woods from EV Insight

Jelani WoodsReceiving Yards

Right now, Jelani Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (-142) after it opened @ 17.5 (-115).

Pros

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jelani Woods to accumulate 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jelani Woods has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (59.7%) versus tight ends this year (59.7%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards