WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Packers
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
- Raheem Mostert has picked up 56.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in football among running backs (77th percentile).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the most yards in the NFL (148 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
- The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 28th-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to be a much smaller piece of his team’s rushing attack this week (47.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.6% in games he has played).
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Rushing Yards
52
Rushing Yards
