Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to earn 4.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Darren Waller’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 57.2% to 71.3%.
Darren Waller’s pass-game efficiency has gotten a boost this season, compiling 8.81 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.63 mark last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Darren Waller has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Darren Waller’s 31.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 56.5.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards