NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Raiders
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to earn 4.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Darren Waller’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 57.2% to 71.3%.
- Darren Waller’s pass-game efficiency has gotten a boost this season, compiling 8.81 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.63 mark last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Darren Waller has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (53.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
- Darren Waller’s 31.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 56.5.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
