Week 16 NFL Player Props of the Week

It’s rare to have only a handful of games on an NFL Sunday, but we still found some solid spots to bet on this week. In this article, I take you through two of my favorite NFL props for the Sunday action. 

Leonard Fournette Over 19.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, BetMGM)

Since coming back from injury, Leonard Fournette has found himself in a fairly even split with rookie Rachaad White. They are among the more unique tandems in the NFL because they share very similar skill sets, both able to contribute in the passing game. Even when both are out there playing, we’ve seen them more comfortable with White as a rusher and Fournette as a pass catcher. He may not be the most talented receiver, but he’s consistent and dependable in a Tom Brady lead offense, which is good enough for me. 

Fournette is coming into this hitting 20-plus receiving yards in nine of 13 games this season, averaging 31.5 receiving yards per game. Even with the addition of White, he’s recorded 30, 33 and 32 receiving yards, averaging 5.3 targets. Fournette outsnapped and out-touched White last week, with a 20% higher route participation (54% route participation vs. 32.6% for White). 

Another huge factor here is the Cardinals defense. They allowed Marlon Mack to go 4-24, Austin Ekeler 11-60, Pierre Strong 2-20, Christian McCaffrey 6-67 and Kyren Williams 3-30 over their last five games. They blitz a lot, which should force Tom Brady to get the ball out quickly. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Brady leads the league with the quickest average time to throw (just ahead of Tua Tagovailoa), getting the ball out and keeping him upright. Even in a positive gamescript where they should be winning, I expect plenty of checkdowns with how inefficient there rushing attack has been. 

Christian Watson Over 50.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, PointsBet)

It’s easy to see why Christian Watson is emerging as one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite weapons this season. There were question marks about his route-running ability and drops, but at 6-foot-4 with speed, the Packers are finding a way to feature him in a major way. He also passed a major test for me last week, recording a 93% route participation despite Romeo Doubs making his return. The Packers will never be the team to willingly come out and throw the ball 40 times, but this game-script might actually force it out of them. 

The Miami Dolphins have had one of the best rush defenses in football, leading to them being a pretty serious pass funnel team. They really haven’t had an answer for pass catchers over the past couple weeks, and I expect that to continue vs. Watson here. I expect the Packers to come out a bit conservative here, but they should turn more toward the pass in the second half. Longest reception could be another good look but isn’t posted by the sportsbooks as of when I’m writing this. As Aaron Rodgers said last week, “if you want to catch touchdowns, then run the right routes.” He would have cashed this number last week if he had, but hopefully that quote got him a little motivated this week.