Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Zack MossRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Colts vs. Chargers
Right now, Zack Moss’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (+106/-145).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-145) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.7% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
- Zack Moss’s running effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, totaling 4.78 yards-per-carry vs just 3.87 figure last year.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 5.54 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
