Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).

Pros

The Philadelphia Eagles will be starting backup QB Gardner Minshew in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Eagles are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
A.J. Brown has posted many more receiving yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the 5th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards