Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Tonyan

Robert TonyanReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Tonyan’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-104/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-118) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Robert Tonyan has been an integral part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 12.9% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Robert Tonyan has been among the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 28.0 yards per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Robert Tonyan has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
Robert Tonyan’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, totaling a measly 7.08 yards-per-target vs a 8.75 figure last season.
Robert Tonyan’s skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 4.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.78 figure last year.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.34 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards