WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 54.5 (-135) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- Aaron Jones has received 51.8% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
- Aaron Jones has run for quite a few more yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
- Aaron Jones’s rushing effectiveness (5.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (85th percentile among RBs).
- The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.
Cons
- The Packers are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 39.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
