Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kenny Pickett from EV Insight

Kenny PickettPassing Yards

Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 180.5 (-115) after it opened @ 185.5 (-115).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most yards in football (264.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest level in football against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.2%).
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, surrendering 8.08 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the league.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has given their QB just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
193
Passing Yards