Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 272.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 272.5 (-115) after it opened @ 271.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for substantially more yards per game (255.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, averaging 8.15 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.82 rate last year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense this year (74.1%).

Cons

The Dolphins are a huge 7-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
262
Passing Yards