Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 215.5 (-125) after it opened @ 227.5 (-115).

Pros

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.18 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks grade out as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has given their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Cons

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Derek Carr has thrown for quite a few less yards per game (237.0) this season than he did last season (274.0).
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the league versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (66.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
197
Passing Yards