Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-137) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
Nick Chubb has generated 88.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (98th percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most yards in the NFL (136 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.

Cons

The New Orleans Saints defensive ends project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards