WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Christian WatsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Dolphins vs. Packers
Right now, Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-104) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks grade out as the worst CB corps in football this year in covering receivers.
- The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, giving up 7.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
