Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 212.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 212.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 70.7% pass rate.
Josh Allen has attempted 38.1 passes per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among QBs.
Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 279.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
Josh Allen has been among the most effective QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.66 yards-per-target while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
209
Passing Yards