WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 81.5 (-114) after it opened @ 82.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accrue 22.6 carries in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his team’s running game this year (87.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (67.7%).
- Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly more yards per game (107.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense boasts the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.36 yards-per-carry.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have gone for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
105
Rushing Yards
105
Rushing Yards
