Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Jets vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-133) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Christian Kirk has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (94.7% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (81.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to earn 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
- Christian Kirk has accrued a colossal 72.0 air yards per game this year: 82nd percentile among wideouts.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Christian Kirk’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.4%.
- The New York Jets defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 122.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to WRs this year (62.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
