Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has given their quarterback 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Derek Carr has thrown for substantially fewer yards per game (236.0) this year than he did last year (274.0).
- Derek Carr’s passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.9% to 61.9%.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league against the New England Patriots defense this year (65.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
