NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Jets vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 72.5 (-135) after it opened @ 74.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 10.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this season (31.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued far more air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted significantly more receiving yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
Cons
- The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The New York Jets defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the league (just 121.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) versus WRs this year (61.7%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in football.
- The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Receiving Yards
78
Receiving Yards
