Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 83.5 (-110) after it opened @ 80.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to earn 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- Davante Adams has notched quite a few more air yards this year (125.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
- Davante Adams’s 79.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 100th percentile for wideouts.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Davante Adams’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 75.8% to 62.0%.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) to WRs this year (63.2%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, conceding 7.96 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards
91
Receiving Yards
