Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-115) after it opened @ 232.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to attempt 37.9 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Mac Jones has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a stellar 67.4% Completion%, checking in at the 87th percentile.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (275.0 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
288
Passing Yards