Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 80.5 (-110) after it opened @ 83.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 20.1 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- Josh Jacobs has been a much bigger part of his offense’s running game this season (86.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (67.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
- Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (108.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 108 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.
- The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 5th-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Rushing Yards
94
Rushing Yards
