Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Texans vs. Chiefs
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (28.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has been used less as a potential target this year (75.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (93.0%).
- The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 137.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (62.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
