Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Packers vs. Rams
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 190.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 190.5 (-120) after it opened @ 204.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Baker Mayfield in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year (74.5%).
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, allowing 8.39 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
- Baker Mayfield has passed for a lot fewer yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (212.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
198
Passing Yards
198
Passing Yards
