Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco from EV Insight

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-140/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-140) after it opened @ 69.5 (-114).

Pros

The Chiefs are an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
Isiah Pacheco’s rushing efficiency (4.94 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (82nd percentile among running backs).
Opposing squads have run for the most yards in the league (167 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards