Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Texans vs. Chiefs
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 298.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 298.5 (-110) after it opened @ 304.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Patrick Mahomes has passed for substantially more yards per game (340.0) this year than he did last year (313.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are an enormous 14.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league versus the Houston Texans defense this year (65.2%).
- The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
315
Passing Yards
315
Passing Yards
