Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 85.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 85.5 (-139) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 98.7% of his offense’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Ja’Marr Chase to garner 10.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Ja’Marr Chase has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (93.0) this season than he did last season (78.0).

Cons

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Ja’Marr Chase has put up quite a few less air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (105.0 per game).
Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, accumulating a mere 9.18 yards-per-target compared to a 10.34 figure last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.2%) versus wide receivers this year (64.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
89
Receiving Yards