Week 15 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 277.5 (-115) after it opened @ 270.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 39.0 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow has been among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 284.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
Joe Burrow has been among the best precision passers in football this year with a terrific 68.8% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 211.0 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, allowing 7.06 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
284
Passing Yards