Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Equanimeous St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Bears vs. Eagles
Right now, Equanimeous St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 21.5 (-110) after it opened @ 19.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- Equanimeous St. Brown has been much more involved in his team’s pass attack this year (12.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.5%).
- Equanimeous St. Brown has accumulated many more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).
- Equanimeous St. Brown has compiled significantly more receiving yards per game (22.0) this season than he did last season (10.0).
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
- The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
