Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Desmond RidderPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Saints vs. Falcons
Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 166.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 166.5 (-137) after it opened @ 165.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks grade out as the worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.7 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 211.0 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.8%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
200
Passing Yards
200
Passing Yards
