WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 15
Browns vs. Ravens
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-113) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to garner 5.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this season (20.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (11.8%).
- David Njoku has put up many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (52.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- David Njoku’s ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this year, notching just 5.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.64 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
