Week 15 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-113) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to garner 5.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
David Njoku has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this season (20.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (11.8%).
David Njoku has put up many more air yards this year (50.0 per game) than he did last year (31.0 per game).
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (52.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Cons

The Browns are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 7th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
David Njoku’s ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this year, notching just 5.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.64 mark last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards